The 2023 reckoning: how an investigation forced the market to reform

In January 2023, a nine-month investigation by the Guardian, Die Zeit and SourceMaterial claimed that more than 90% of REDD+ forest credits certified by Verra, the market's largest certifier, were "worthless" — "phantom credits" with no real climate benefit. The shockwave redefined the market.

A methodological controversy

The investigation relied on scientific studies comparing regional deforestation to project rates. Verra strongly contested the methodology, arguing that the "synthetic controls" used did not reflect the site-specific drivers of deforestation. The scientific debate remains nuanced — some studies reaching opposite conclusions on the same projects.

But beyond the methodological quarrel, trust was shaken. Verra's CEO stepped down soon after. The Kariba affair in Zimbabwe, revealed by Bloomberg, deepened the crisis by exposing a case of massive over-crediting.

What the crisis triggered

Far from killing the market, the 2023 reckoning forced it to reform deeply:

• The launch of the Core Carbon Principles (ICVCM) in January 2024, setting a common quality threshold.
• The overhaul of REDD+ methodologies toward more robust, standardised approaches.
• The rise of credit rating agencies (Sylvera, BeZero…).
• A shift in demand toward high-integrity credits, better audited and tracked.

The 2023 crisis was painful but salutary: it turned methodological integrity from a marketing argument into a condition of market access.